Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics
aboutimage

How does MAPPPD work?
See the flow chart here
flowchart
Read about MAPPPD
About

MAPPPD is a project funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with Oceanites and the Lab of Dr. Heather Lynch at Stony Brook University.

Penguins are some of the most charismatic animals in the world and have captured the imaginations of news-makers, scientists, film producers and the general public. Beyond their general intrinsic value, they are considered important ecosystem indicators. That is to say, monitoring these beautiful species can tell us a lot about the general health of the Antarctic. This is because penguins are top predators, and changes (natural or anthropogenic) which influence the oceanography of the region or prey abundance, will ultimately be detected through changes in distribution or population size.

The Antarctic is currently governed by nations which make up the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). Management strategies designed by the ATS rely on accurate and citable penguin population data in order to mitigate any anthropogenic impacts in the region. However, data on penguin populations are limited primarily due to the fact that most monitored colonies are nearby permanent research stations. This means that any remote populations are essentially ignored during planning processes. Due to advances in remote sensing, modeling and aerial imagery, it is now possible to obtain population estimates for these hard-to-reach sites.

MAPPPD aims to deliver population data from four species of penguin to any interested party with the goal of helping support conservation decisions in the Antarctic. We use a combination of highly advanced remote sensing technologies, aerial imagery and field counts to estimate penguin abundance across the entire continent.

All of the data in MAPPPD are open access to the general public, and the process is well documented in our white paper report.

Thank you for visiting!

Population model math
Click here for math!

The Adélie penguin population estimates come from a Bayesian model developed by Dr. Christian Che-Castaldo. This model uses approximations of relationships between covariates (e.g., environmental and otherwise) and population size to take our best guess at how many nests are found at each colony since the start of the time series. The maths behind Bayesian approximations are complex; The maths are detailed in an upcoming Supplement from the upcoming Che-Castaldo et al (2017) paper in Nature Communications

The Gentoo and Chinstrap population models, also developed by Dr Che-Castaldo, are still in the experimental phase and have yet to be peer-reviewed. Currently, they use the same algorithm as developed for the Adélie penguin, but will be updated in time.

Occupancy model math
Click here for math!
occmath
MAPPPD team
Meet the MAPPPD team
Heather

Dr. Heather Lynch

Heather is a professor at Stony Brook University and the principal investigator of the MAPPPD project. Prior to arriving at Stony Brook Heather was a student at Princeton and Harvard, then continued into a Post doctoral research position at the University of Maryland. She has a background in physical sciences and quantitative modeling. She coordinates and manages all aspects of MAPPPD to ensure funding agency expectations are met.
Christian

Dr. Chris Che-Castaldo

Christian is a postdoctoral researcher and the lead modeler of the MAPPPD project. Chris has nearly a decade of experience in bayesian modeling techniques having previously worked at the University of Maryland with Dr. Bill Fagan. His role is to build the backend database of MAPPPD and construct population estimates and forecasts.
Grant

Dr. Grant Humphries

Grant is a postdoctoral researcher and the lead web developer of the MAPPPD project. Grant's primary interest has been seabird ecology and spatial modeling, but has a decade of experience using machine learning techniques and programming with R and Python languages. His role is to build the front-end of MAPPPD in line with the needs of stakeholders.
Michael

Michael Schrimpf

Michael is a PhD student at Stony Brook University under the supervision of Dr. Heather Lynch and the lead modeler for the occupancy data presented on MAPPPD. He is an avid birder with an interest in seabird ecology with a focus on quantitative methods. He has constructed a model which predicts the occupancy of certain species at a variety of sites on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Phil

Phil McDowall

Phil is a PhD student at Stony Brook University under the supervision of Dr. Heather Lynch and is a programmer for the MAPPPD project. He is a computer scientist by training and has been working on combining a variety of penguin data with high performance computing techniques. He developed the original concept framework for MAPPPD along with Dr. Heather Lynch.

Data sources

J. M. ACERO SÓFIA COPELLO R. J. HEIMARK OSAMU MATSUDA ANNIE POLLARD WOJCIECH STARCK
STACEY ADLARD NÉSTOR R. CORIA G. HEMPEL JOHN MCKINLAY SALLY PONCET BERNARD STONEHOUSE
C. A. AGUIRRE ERLI SCHNEIDER COSTA R. S. C. HORNE STEPHEN MCNEILL JÉRÔME PONCET MATT SWANSON
DAVID G. AINLEY R. J. M. CRAWFORD TAKAO HOSHIAI MARCIA S. MEIXLER P. J. PONGANIS TATSUO SWEDA
PIOTR J. ANGIEL S. CROFTS R. HUCKE-GAETE JORGE A. MENNUCCI CLAIRE PORTER MASAYUKI TAKAHASHI
BRAULIO ARAYA J. P. CROXALL N. HUIN PETER METCALF R. A. PRICE ATSUSHI TANIMURA
TATIANA COELHO BALBÃO G. A. DANERI HIDEO ICHIKAWA LISA MEYER PETER A. PRINCE ANDRZEJ TATUR
GRANT BALLARD F. H. J. DAUNT YOSHIO INO T. MICOL D. V. PYLYPENKO R. H. TAYLOR
RUDOLF BANNASCH K. C. DELORD SHINGO ISHIKAWA RAINER MÖNKE P. QUILLFELDT B. W. THOMAS
ANDRES BARBOSA KATIE M. DUGGER BOLESŁAW JABŁOŃSKI DIEGO MONTALTI R. D. QUINTANA SONIA C TIDEMANN
C. BARBRAUD MICHAEL J DUNN JENNIFER A JACKSON JUAN MORENO STANISŁAW RAKUSA-SUSZCZEWSKI F. S. TODD
ANDREA BARONI B. M. DYER J. R. JEHL PAUL MORIN NORMAN RATCLIFFE D. TORRES
MANDY BARRON CARL R. EKLUND GAVIN W. JOHNSTONE A. MORTON K. REINHARDT A. TOWNSEND
KERRY J BARTON LOUISE EMMERSON A. G. E. JONES THOMAS MUELLER C. C. RIMMER PHILIP N. TRATHAN
KERRY J. BARTON P. H. ENSOR S. JONES C. MÜLLER-SCHWARZE GRAHAM ROBERTSON WAYNE Z. TRIVELPIECE
J. A. BASSETT A. W. ERICKSON P. JOUVENTIN D. MÜLLER-SCHWARZE C. J. R. ROBERTSON S. G. TRIVELPIECE
MARIA PAULA BERON CESAR GARCIA ESPONDA MARIANA A. JUÁRES E. J. MURPHY L. M. ROBERTSON L. UPFOLD
M. I. GARCIA BETOÑO WILLIAM F. FAGAN MARTIN KAISER ANDRZEJ MYRCHA EMILCE F. ROMBOLÁ RODOLFO DEL VALLE
ANDREAS BICK MARCO FAVERO AKIKO KATO YASUHIKO NAITO D. M. ROOTES V. VALLEJOS
ANDY BLACK ANDREW H. FLEMING KOUICHI KAWAGUSHI RON NAVEEN YAN ROPERT-COUDERT S. VIVEQUIN
PEDRO G. BLENDINGER R. FONTANA K. R. KERRY JAVIER NEGRETE JOHN F RYAN N. J. VOLKMAN
MARÍA SUSANA BÓ STEVE FORREST E. D. KIRKWOOD KYM NEWBERY P. G. RYAN ADAM WALLEYN
DIRK R BRIGGS DERREN FOX J. KJELMYR HERMAN NÚÑEZ MARTIN SANDER CLAIRE M WALUDA
SILVIA M. BUJAN ADRIAN J. FOX GERALD L. KOOYMAN R. ODENING MARÍA MERCEDES SANTOS MICHAŁ WȨGRZYN
MALCOLM BURLEY W. R. FRASER MAŁGORZATA KORCZAK-ABSHIRE YOSHIKUNI OHYAMA CESAR RODRIGO DOS SANTOS RICHARD WHITE
H. R. BURTON PETER T. FRETWELL MICHELLE A. LARUE J. L. ORGEIRA R. P. SCHLATTER MICHAEL D. WHITEHEAD
JESSICA CARDÈ MITSUO FUKUCHI PHILLIP LAW C. G. ORREGO MATHEW R. SCHWALLER P. A. WHITTINGTON
ALEJANDRO R. CARLINI P. J. FULLAGAR IVÁN LAZO D. F. PARMALEE W. D. SHUFORD BARBARA WIENECKE
R. CARR AXEL GEBAUER G. LESIŃSKI M. R. PAYNE KAZIMIERZ SIERAKOWSKI G. WILSON
PAULA CASANOVAS G. R. GEUPAL JAN L. LIESER PABLO J. PERCHIVALE M. PATRICIA SILVA PETER R. WILSON
RICARDO J. CASAUX J. R. GILBERT MAJA LISOWSKA HANS-ULRICH PETER WILLIAM J. L. SLADEN DAVID WILSON
PIOTR CIAPUTA DIEGO GONZÁLEZ-ZEVALLOS K. LORENZ S. L. PETERSEN D. J. SLIP ERIC J. WOEHLER
V. CIRELLI SHULAMIT GORDON MATTHEW LOW MARIA VIRGÍNIA PETRY GUILLERMO E. SOAVE ROBERT C. WOOD
J. CLARKE KEN GREEN HEATHER J. LYNCH SIMONE PFEIFFER COLIN SOUTHWELL JOSÉ V. YAÑEZ
NORM COBLEY S. HAHN AMANDA S LYNNES RHONDA PIKE DARREN SOUTHWELL DETLEV ZIPPEL
P. CONVEY C. M. HARRIS PHIL O'B. LYVER P. A. PISTORIUS H. SPAIRANI
J. COOPER G. M. HEIMARK JOHN A MACDONALD MICHAEL POLITO B. SPEAR