Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics
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How does MAPPPD work?
See the flow chart here
flowchart
Read about MAPPPD
About

MAPPPD is a project funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with Oceanites and the Lab of Dr. Heather Lynch at Stony Brook University.

Penguins are some of the most charismatic animals in the world and have captured the imaginations of news-makers, scientists, film producers and the general public. Beyond their general intrinsic value, they are considered important ecosystem indicators. That is to say, monitoring these beautiful species can tell us a lot about the general health of the Antarctic. This is because penguins are top predators, and changes (natural or anthropogenic) which influence the oceanography of the region or prey abundance, will ultimately be detected through changes in distribution or population size.

The Antarctic is currently governed by nations which make up the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). Management strategies designed by the ATS rely on accurate and citable penguin population data in order to mitigate any anthropogenic impacts in the region. However, data on penguin populations are limited primarily due to the fact that most monitored colonies are nearby permanent research stations. This means that any remote populations are essentially ignored during planning processes. Due to advances in remote sensing, modeling and aerial imagery, it is now possible to obtain population estimates for these hard-to-reach sites.

MAPPPD aims to deliver population data from four species of penguin to any interested party with the goal of helping support conservation decisions in the Antarctic. We use a combination of highly advanced remote sensing technologies, aerial imagery and field counts to estimate penguin abundance across the entire continent.

All of the data in MAPPPD are open access to the general public, and the process is well documented in our white paper report.

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Population model math
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The Adélie penguin population estimates come from a Bayesian model developed by Dr. Christian Che-Castaldo. This model uses approximations of relationships between covariates (e.g., environmental and otherwise) and population size to take our best guess at how many nests are found at each colony since the start of the time series. The maths behind Bayesian approximations are complex; The maths are detailed in an upcoming Supplement from the upcoming Che-Castaldo et al (2017) paper in Nature Communications

The Gentoo and Chinstrap population models, also developed by Dr Che-Castaldo, are still in the experimental phase and have yet to be peer-reviewed. Currently, they use the same algorithm as developed for the Adélie penguin, but will be updated in time.

Occupancy model math
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occmath
MAPPPD team
Meet the MAPPPD team
Heather

Dr. Heather Lynch

Heather is a professor at Stony Brook University and the principal investigator of the MAPPPD project. Prior to arriving at Stony Brook Heather was a student at Princeton and Harvard, then continued into a Post doctoral research position at the University of Maryland. She has a background in physical sciences and quantitative modeling. She coordinates and manages all aspects of MAPPPD to ensure funding agency expectations are met.
Christian

Dr. Chris Che-Castaldo

Christian is a postdoctoral researcher and the lead modeler of the MAPPPD project. Chris has nearly a decade of experience in bayesian modeling techniques having previously worked at the University of Maryland with Dr. Bill Fagan. His role is to build the backend database of MAPPPD and construct population estimates and forecasts.
Grant

Dr. Grant Humphries

Grant is a postdoctoral researcher and the lead web developer of the MAPPPD project. Grant's primary interest has been seabird ecology and spatial modeling, but has a decade of experience using machine learning techniques and programming with R and Python languages. His role is to build the front-end of MAPPPD in line with the needs of stakeholders.
Michael

Michael Schrimpf

Michael is a PhD student at Stony Brook University under the supervision of Dr. Heather Lynch and the lead modeler for the occupancy data presented on MAPPPD. He is an avid birder with an interest in seabird ecology with a focus on quantitative methods. He has constructed a model which predicts the occupancy of certain species at a variety of sites on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Phil

Phil McDowall

Phil is a PhD student at Stony Brook University under the supervision of Dr. Heather Lynch and is a programmer for the MAPPPD project. He is a computer scientist by training and has been working on combining a variety of penguin data with high performance computing techniques. He developed the original concept framework for MAPPPD along with Dr. Heather Lynch.

Data sources

(ATCM) ANTARCTIC TREATY CONSULTATIVE MEETING P. CONVEY TOM HART MATTHEW LOW RHONDA PIKE COLIN SOUTHWELL
(SATCM) SPECIAL ANTARCTIC TREATY CONSULTATIVE MEETING J. COOPER G. M. HEIMARK HEATHER J. LYNCH P. A. PISTORIUS DARREN SOUTHWELL
J. M. ACERO SÓFIA COPELLO R. J. HEIMARK AMANDA S LYNNES MICHAEL J. POLITO H. SPAIRANI
STACEY ADLARD NÉSTOR R. CORIA G. HEMPEL PHIL O'B. LYVER MICHAEL POLITO B. SPEAR
C. A. AGUIRRE ERLI SCHNEIDER COSTA RACHAEL HERMAN JOHN A MACDONALD ANNIE POLLARD WOJCIECH STARCK
DAVID G. AINLEY R. J. M. CRAWFORD MARIKA M HOLLAND OSAMU MATSUDA SALLY PONCET BERNARD STONEHOUSE
PIOTR J. ANGIEL S. CROFTS R. S. C. HORNE PHILIP MCDOWALL JÉRÔME PONCET MATT SWANSON
ANTARCTIC ECOSYSTEM RESEARCH GROUP J. P. CROXALL TAKAO HOSHIAI JOHN MCKINLAY P. J. PONGANIS TATSUO SWEDA
BRAULIO ARAYA G. A. DANERI R. HUCKE-GAETE STEPHEN MCNEILL CLAIRE PORTER MASAYUKI TAKAHASHI
TATIANA COELHO BALBÃO F. H. J. DAUNT N. HUIN MARCIA S. MEIXLER R. A. PRICE ATSUSHI TANIMURA
GRANT BALLARD K. C. DELORD GRANT HUMPHRIES JORGE A. MENNUCCI PETER A. PRINCE ANDRZEJ TATUR
RUDOLF BANNASCH CESAR RODRIGO DOS SANTOS HIDEO ICHIKAWA PETER METCALF D. V. PYLYPENKO R. H. TAYLOR
ANDRES BARBOSA KATIE M. DUGGER YOSHIO INO LISA MEYER P. QUILLFELDT B. W. THOMAS
C. BARBRAUD MICHAEL J DUNN SHINGO ISHIKAWA T. MICOL R. D. QUINTANA SONIA C TIDEMANN
ANDREA BARONI B. M. DYER BOLESŁAW JABŁOŃSKI RAINER MÖNKE STANISŁAW RAKUSA-SUSZCZEWSKI F. S. TODD
MANDY BARRON CARL R. EKLUND JENNIFER A JACKSON DIEGO MONTALTI NORMAN RATCLIFFE D. TORRES
KERRY J BARTON LOUISE EMMERSON J. R. JEHL JUAN MORENO K. REINHARDT A. TOWNSEND
KERRY J. BARTON P. H. ENSOR STÉPHANIE JENOUVRIER PAUL MORIN MELISSA RIDER PHILIP N. TRATHAN
J. A. BASSETT A. W. ERICKSON RUBAO JI A. MORTON C. C. RIMMER WAYNE Z. TRIVELPIECE
MARIA PAULA BERON CESAR GARCIA ESPONDA GAVIN W. JOHNSTONE THOMAS MUELLER GRAHAM ROBERTSON S. G. TRIVELPIECE
ANDREAS BICK WILLIAM F. FAGAN A. G. E. JONES C. MÜLLER-SCHWARZE C. J. R. ROBERTSON L. UPFOLD
ANDY BLACK MARCO FAVERO S. JONES D. MÜLLER-SCHWARZE L. M. ROBERTSON JOSÉ V. YAÑEZ
PEDRO G. BLENDINGER ANDREW H. FLEMING P. JOUVENTIN E. J. MURPHY EMILCE F. ROMBOLÁ RODOLFO DEL VALLE
MARÍA SUSANA BÓ R. FONTANA MARIANA A. JUÁRES ANDRZEJ MYRCHA D. M. ROOTES V. VALLEJOS
ALEX BOROWICZ STEVEN FORREST MARTIN KAISER YASUHIKO NAITO YAN ROPERT-COUDERT S. VIVEQUIN
DIRK R BRIGGS STEVE FORREST AKIKO KATO RON NAVEEN JOHN F RYAN N. J. VOLKMAN
BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY DERREN FOX KOUICHI KAWAGUSHI JAVIER NEGRETE P. G. RYAN MICHAŁ W\C{E}GRZYN
SILVIA M. BUJAN ADRIAN J. FOX K. R. KERRY KYM NEWBERY MARTIN SANDER ADAM WALLEYN
MALCOLM BURLEY W. R. FRASER E. D. KIRKWOOD HERMAN NÚ{Ñ}EZ MARÍA MERCEDES SANTOS CLAIRE M WALUDA
H. R. BURTON PETER T. FRETWELL J. KJELMYR R. ODENING THOMAS SAYRE-MCCORD RICHARD WHITE
JESSICA CARDÈ MITSUO FUKUCHI GERALD L. KOOYMAN YOSHIKUNI OHYAMA R. P. SCHLATTER MICHAEL D. WHITEHEAD
ALEJANDRO R. CARLINI P. J. FULLAGAR MAŁGORZATA KORCZAK-ABSHIRE J. L. ORGEIRA MATHEW SCHWALLER P. A. WHITTINGTON
R. CARR M. I. GARCIA BETOÑO LAURA LANDRUM C. G. ORREGO MATHEW R. SCHWALLER BARBARA WIENECKE
PAULA CASANOVAS AXEL GEBAUER MICHELLE A. LARUE D. F. PARMALEE KEVIN T SHOEMAKER G. WILSON
RICARDO J. CASAUX G. R. GEUPAL PHILLIP LAW M. R. PAYNE W. D. SHUFORD PETER R. WILSON
CHRISTIAN CHE-CASTALDO J. R. GILBERT IVÁN LAZO PABLO J. PERCHIVALE KAZIMIERZ SIERAKOWSKI DAVID WILSON
PIOTR CIAPUTA DIEGO GONZÁLEZ-ZEVALLOS G. LESIŃSKI HANS-ULRICH PETER M. PATRICIA SILVA ERIC J. WOEHLER
V. CIRELLI SHULAMIT GORDON YUN LI S. L. PETERSEN HANUMANT SINGH ROBERT C. WOOD
J. CLARKE KEN GREEN JAN L. LIESER MARIA VIRGÍNIA PETRY WILLIAM J. L. SLADEN CASEY YOUNGFLESH
GEMMA CLUCAS S. HAHN MAJA LISOWSKA SIMONE PFEIFFER D. J. SLIP DETLEV ZIPPEL
NORM COBLEY C. M. HARRIS K. LORENZ RICHARD PHILLIPS GUILLERMO E. SOAVE